In the first quarter of 2024, the order index for machine tools compiled by the Centro Studi & Cultura di Impresa of Ucimu-Sistemi per Produrre recorded a decline of 18.9 percent compared to the period from January to March 2023. The absolute index value has stabilized at 77.9 (base 100 in 2021).
The main reason for the negative result was the decline in domestic and foreign orders from Italian manufacturers. In particular, orders collected abroad fell by 18.5% compared to the same period last year. The absolute index value has leveled off at 91. Instead, the order index on the domestic market recorded a decline of 19.4% compared to the first quarter of 2023. The absolute index value stabilized at 55.1.
Barbara Colombo, President of Ucimu, explained: “The year 2024 is therefore starting with a negative sign for Italian machine tool manufacturers and although this is a confirmation of what we expected, we must now overcome the bottleneck by giving the market a clear signal of relaxation and stability, a basic requirement for those who need to invest in the latest generation of machines.”
“In terms of the trend in orders collected abroad,” continued Barbara Colombo, “this first part of the year, after a positive 2023, is off to a rather cautious start. The risks of an expansion of tensions beyond the Israeli-Palestinian area and an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are significant. But the uncertainty surrounding the energy transition and the direction Europe will take after the elections in June are another burden.
“Apart from this, our expectations for the current year in terms of exports are positive: we expect a moderate development of our business activities in the United States and an increase in sales in some European countries and in countries that are beginning to conquer the ranking of target markets for the Made in Italy sector, such as Turkey, Mexico and India. Also for this reason, Ucimu has taken the first steps to create a new business network in Mexico, which is undergoing intensive production development closely linked to the US economy.”
“The situation is different with the assessment of the internal market, whose demand – emphasized Barbara Colombo – has been on standby for several (too many) months, waiting for the new competition measures to be implemented. We manufacturers continue to receive requests for quotations from our customers, even for important projects, but these remain in limbo due to a lack of certainty about the subsidies that will be made available by the government.”
“The current situation seems surprisingly blurred compared to the situation just a month and a half ago when the decree law with the transitional annex 5.0 was submitted. In this respect, the implementing regulations are still lacking today; in the case of Transition 4.0, on the other hand, the ongoing change in the rules with which the measure can be used threatens to irreparably block domestic demand.
Barbara Colombo continued: “The government must get this crucial chapter for the development of the country’s manufacturing industry on the right track as quickly as possible so that companies can complete the necessary investments in production technology. On the other hand, the growing demand from Italian and foreign exhibitors to participate in the 34th Bi-Mu, which will take place next October at the fieramilano Rho exhibition center, shows the confidence of companies in the sector in the market”.
“Time is really starting to run out for the measures from 5.0 onwards. The application of the measure, which aims to reward investments that reconcile the issue of digitalization with that of energy saving, is indeed limited in time. In order to take advantage of 5.0, the product must be delivered within the deadlines set by the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan) by December 31, 2025. This means that in order to take advantage of these measures, the rules of engagement, i.e. the implementing regulations, must be available within the shortest possible time, otherwise such severe time pressure between the time of ordering and the time of delivery will force us to forego a large part of the market requirements. Do we really want to risk all that?”
“For Plan 4.0, on the other hand, the government’s decision to announce in advance the value of the planned investment and the distribution of the tax replacement entitlement granted, in terms of annual quotas, has slightly destabilized the market along the lines of Transition 5.0.”
“Although we recognize the need for the Government Accounting Department to have an accurate overview in advance of the economic resources required to cover the purchases made under Regulation 4.0, it is also true that changing the rules of the game in the middle of the game causes great mistrust among those considering new investments. For this reason, we call on the authorities to take immediate action to explain all these aspects. We are sure that the clarity and speed with which the government will account for the details that are still missing will allow the Italian demand for new production technologies to restart with full vigor.”
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